在这些假定不变时，如果煤炭真的短缺了，中国经济会如何？
直观的结论是中国煤炭不能出问题。
发达国家的能源消费结构中，石油所占比例很大。2006年，美国油气占其能源消费总量近64.8%，中国只有23.4%；全球石油需求总量中，美国占24%，中国仅占8.7%。油价快速上涨对发达国家的冲击会大一些。当然，中国因油价上涨而遭受的损失也不小：目前油价每涨一美元，中国每年就得多付十多亿美元的辛苦钱（多少双鞋子？）。但是，真正可以对中国经济造成重创的是煤炭价格上涨——中国煤炭消费已占全球总量的40％。
理论上，石油和煤炭不会用完。资源的稀缺将以价格来体现，价格会上涨，直至有效的能源替代出现。按中国目前的能源消费结构，煤炭价格大幅上涨会对中国经济产生实质性影响。进一步说，一旦中国出现煤炭短缺而需大量进口，将对国际煤价产生重大影响。如果现在把煤炭的低价体现在钢铁等高耗能产品上，将它们大量出口，煤炭短缺时再以几倍高价买煤回来，我们是不是白辛苦在为人打工？
根本的解决之道是，不要让年煤炭需求达到50亿吨。如此大量的煤炭烘烤经济，经济是要出问题的。想一想相应的交通和环境问题，经济增长会因此打怎样的折扣？

No change in these assumptions, if really a shortage of coal, and how will the Chinese economy?
Intuitive conclusion is that China's coal is not the problem.
Developed countries, energy consumption structure, a large proportion of the oil. In 2006, the United States total energy consumption of oil and gas accounted for nearly 64.8 percent, only 23.4% of China; the world's total oil demand, the United States accounted for 24%, China accounted for only 8.7%. Rapid increases in oil prices impact on the developed countries would be larger. Of course, China due to rising oil prices and the loss is not small: the current oil prices rose a dollar each, the Chinese pay much more each year of more than 1 billion U.S. dollars was hardly worth the effort (number of pairs of shoes?). However, the real economy can hit China's coal prices - China's coal consumption accounted for 40% of the global total.
In theory, will not run out of oil and coal. Scarce resources will be the price to reflect the price will rise, until the emergence of effective energy alternative. According to China's energy consumption structure, significant increases in coal prices would have a material impact on the Chinese economy. Further said that once the coal shortage in China will require a lot of imports, will have a major impact on international coal prices. If the low-cost coal in the iron and steel products such as energy, a large number of exporting them, the coal shortage of coal and then bought back several times, we are not white people to work hard in?
The fundamental solution is not to let coal demand was 5000 million tons. Such a large baking coal economy, the economy is to the problem. Think about the traffic and environmental problems, economic growth will be playing what kind of discount?