我们的研究还预计，与能源需求相对应，中国电力装机将在2020年达到15亿千瓦，其中75%是煤炭发电。按此预测，中国2020年的人均用电水平大致是4600千瓦时，相当于美国上世纪60年代初期、德国70年代初期、英国和日本70年代末期到80年代中期，韩国90年代后期至2000年的水平。届时75%的煤电意味着需要电煤约27亿吨。
因此，2020年中国年煤炭消费达50亿吨是可能的。假如这一数字是可能的，接下来的问题是，中国还有多少煤炭可用？
2006年底，对中国煤炭储量有三种估计：《BP世界能源统计年鉴》中，中国探明原煤储量为1145亿吨（指经过详细勘测后可用现有技术开采的储量）；国土资源部调整的剩余经济可采原煤储量为1893亿吨（在当时技术经济条件下，扣除已采出的部分，可从探明储量中开采出来的数量）；中国统计年鉴的基础原煤储量则是3335亿吨。
如果经济依然高速增长,预测的结果是:按照BP数据计算的中国煤炭探明储量在2035年将被耗尽；按照国土资源部计算的国内煤炭剩余经济可采储量将在2045年被耗尽；即使相对于中国统计年鉴的数据，中国的煤炭基础储量也只能使用到2065年。
这些预测包含了多项重要假定：中国的经济增长模式没有重大变化、能源政策没有发生根本改变、一次能源利用技术无重大的突破、一次能源储量无重大的发现，以及保持目前的能源进出口水平（包含间接能源）。如果这些假定的前提条件出现变化，那么，预测不一定成为现实。

Our study also is expected to correspond with the energy demand, China's power installed capacity in 2020 will reach 1.5 billion kilowatts, of which 75% is coal-fired power generation. This forecast, in 2020 China's per capita consumption level is roughly 4600 kwh, equivalent to the United States in the early 60th century, Germany in the early 70, the United Kingdom and Japan, the late 70s to the mid-80s, South Korea late 90's to 2000 level. 75% of the coal-fired electricity will mean that the electricity needs of about 27 million tons.
Therefore, in 2020, coal consumption in China reached 5000 million tons is possible. If this figure is possible, the next question is, how much coal can be used in China?
By the end of 2006, on China's coal reserves estimated that there are three: "BP Statistical Review of World Energy Yearbook", China's proven coal reserves of 114.5 billion tons (that can be used after careful investigation of the exploitation of existing reserves of technology); the remainder of the adjustment of Land and Natural Resources economic recoverable coal reserves of 189.3 billion tons (in the technical and economic conditions, the deduction has been part of recovery from the exploitation of proved reserves in the number of out); based on China Statistical Yearbook of the coal reserves are 333.5 billion tons.
If the economy is still growing rapidly, forecast the results are: BP data in accordance with China's proven reserves of coal in 2035 will be exhausted; calculated in accordance with the Ministry of Land and Resources of the domestic economy remaining recoverable coal reserves will be depleted in 2045; Even compared with the China Statistical Yearbook of the data, the basis of China's coal reserves can only be used in 2065.
These projections include a number of important assumptions: China's economic growth there have been no major change, energy policy has not fundamentally changed, the energy use of technology without a major breakthrough, no significant energy reserves, the discovery, as well as maintain the current level of energy import and export (including indirect energy). If these assumptions change in the prerequisite, then the forecast is not necessarily a reality.