2006年全国城市化率（城市人口占全部人口的比重）为43%，距离中等收入国家61%、高收入国家78%的差距甚远。按此估计，到2020年，中国大约有3亿人口将迁移进城市居住和工作（相当于目前美国总人口）。城市化进程推动大规模城市基础设施和住房建设，需要大量的水泥和钢铁，这些都只能在国内生产——世界上没有哪一个国家能为中国生产这么多的钢材和水泥。
目前的国际贸易分工也使中国固化在低端高耗能的产业结构中，只要出口仍是中国经济增长的“一驾马车”，这个产业结构就很难根本改变。
中国目前的人均能源消费是1.7吨标煤，为世界平均水平的66%，美国的17%，日本的32%，英国的35%。根据我们的预测，2020年中国的人均能源消费水平大约为3.2吨标煤，仅相当于日本1969年的水平，美国的人均能源消费量在19世纪初已达到10吨标煤。中国显然不能按照美国的高耗能方式发展，但即使像日本一样走节能路线，中国到2020年人均能耗很有可能达到3.2吨标煤。

2006 National urbanization (urban population proportion of total population) to 43 percent from 61 percent in middle-income countries, high-income countries 78% of the gap between the very large. Is estimated that by 2020, there were about 300 million of China's population will migrate into the cities to live and work (equivalent to the total population of the United States). The process of urbanization to promote large-scale urban infrastructure and housing construction, requires a large amount of cement and iron and steel, these are only domestic product - the world no country can produce so many of China's steel and cement.
The current division of labor in international trade also solidified in the lower end of the Chinese industrial structure in the high-energy, as long as the export of China's economic growth is still "one Troika", which it is difficult to fundamentally change the industrial structure.
China's current per capita energy consumption is 1.7 tons of standard coal for the world's average of 66%, 17% of the United States, Japan 32%, 35% of the United Kingdom. According to our forecasts, by 2020 China's per capita energy consumption level of about 3.2 tons of standard coal, equivalent to only the level of Japan in 1969, the United States per capita energy consumption in the early 19th century has reached 10 tons of standard coal. China is clearly not in accordance with the United States, the development of high energy-consuming way, but even taking the same energy as the Japanese line, by 2020 China's per capita energy consumption is likely to reach 3.2 tons of standard coal.