现实其实严酷。我们的麻烦丝毫不比别国少，从短期到长期，能源愈来愈成为中国经济增长的主要约束条件之一。
一个被广泛传播的乐观预测是，考虑到城市化、工业化仍未完成，以及中国政府对经济的驾驭能力，即使保守估计，中国经济还可以再快速增长30年。只是，这个预测中没有回答：未来快速增长的30年，我们有足够的能源吗？
我所在的厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心最近完成了一项研究，结果表明，假定到2020年重工业比例有所下降、能源效率有所提高、城市化水平为60％，如果经济保持每年增长9％，中国一次能源消费将达到53亿吨标准煤，大概是2007年的2倍。将经济增长率下调到7％，能源需求将减少到45亿吨标准煤。
2006年中国GDP占世界总量的5.5%左右，而钢材消费量大约占世界钢材消耗的30%，水泥消耗大约占世界水泥消耗量的54%。这些与能源密切相关的高耗能产业快速增长，使2003到2007年5年间，中国能源年消费总量都接近双位数增长。经济学的实证研究表明，城市化是引起能源需求增加的主要原因，中国的情形并不是特例。

In fact, the harsh reality. We have the slightest trouble less than other countries, in the short term to long-term, energy increasingly become China's economic growth, one of the main constraints.
An optimistic forecast is widely disseminated, taking into account the urbanization, industrialization has not yet been completed, as well as the Chinese government's ability to manage the economy, even a conservative estimate, China's economic growth also could be 30 years. However, this prediction has not been answered: the rapid growth of the next 30 years, we have enough energy right?
I Xiamen University, China's Center for Economic Research Energy recently completed a study results show that the assumption that by 2020 the proportion of heavy industry has declined, energy efficiency has increased, the level of urbanization is 60%, if the economy has sustained an annual growth of 9% China's primary energy consumption will reach 5.3 billion tons of standard coal, about 2 times in 2007. Economic growth rate will be reduced to 7%, energy demand would be reduced to 4.5 billion tons of standard coal.
GDP of China in 2006 accounted for 5.5% of the world's total, while steel consumption in the world steel consumption of about 30% of the world's cement consumption accounted for about 54 percent of cement consumption. These high-energy is closely related to the rapid growth of energy-consuming industries, so that from 2003 to 2007 5 years, China's energy consumption in total close to double-digit growth. An Empirical Study of Economics showed that the urbanization is causing major increase in energy demand, China's situation is not the case.